Scottish independence referendum poll: the latest tracker

What are the odds that Scotland will become an independent country? Here we track the latest polls as the day of the independence referendum edges closer.
Scottish independence referendum: will Alex Salmond (top) or Alistair Darling
(bottom) win the campaign?
By Michael Wilkinson

Here you can track the latest poll of polls to get the most accurate
picture of how people are likely to vote in the Scottish
independence referendum.
How the polls have changed
Polls for the Scottish referendum continue to indicate a tight vote
on Thursday, with a survey conducted exclusively for The
Telegraph showing on September 17 a narrowing of the No
vote's advantage from six points to four.
With the Opinium research for the Telegraph poll concluding on
Monday, the referendum battle appears to be poised for the closest
possible result.
Overall, some 8 per cent of voters remain undecided. Among
women, however, an increasing number are coming down in
favour of voting No.

The results show that the No campaign now has a 16­point lead
among women who have decided which way to vote ­ up from 14
points on Sunday. Some 58 per cent of women say they will vote
No on Thursday, with 42 per cent planning to vote Yes, among
those who have reached a decision.
Men are more evenly split but more than half – 53 per cent – now
back independence.
Three polls published on September 13 also suggested the vote
was too close to call. The campaign to keep Scotland in the United
Kingdom took an eight­point lead in a poll by Survation. The No
campaign was on 54 per cent, ahead of Alex Salmond’s separatist
movement, which was on 46 per cent.
Meanwhile, an Opinium/Observer poll showed a narrow gap in
favour of No. Excluding undecided voters, the poll found 53 per
cent of those questioned plan to vote No while 47 per cent intend
to vote Yes.
But a survey of 705 Scots by ICM for The Telegraph suggested
that the Yes vote had opened up an eight­point lead over the No
campaign. Results of the online poll showed 54 per cent of Scots
who have made up their minds planned to vote in favour of
independence, with 46 per cent intending to vote against. This is
how the poll looked:

An ICM/Guardian poll on September 12 showed that despite an
intense week of campaigning by pro­union politicians including
David Cameron and Ed Miliband, support for the No campaign
was on 51 per cent, and Yes on 49 per cent, once the don't­knows
were excluded, giving only a slight lead for the Better Together
campaign.
The No campaign took a six­point lead over the Yes campaign on
September 10 when a Survation poll of 1,000 Scots found that
47.6 per cent intend to vote No compared with 42.4 per cent for
Yes. When the 10 per cent who said they were still undecided
were removed from the equation, the survey suggests that the
Better Together campaign would win with a vote of 53 per cent
over 47 per cent for the Yes group. This is how the poll looks:
This map shows a breakdown of the poll by region – and helpfully
shows an overlay of which political parties dominate those areas.
It is clear that there is greater support for the Yes campaign in
Labour strongholds:

^{Source: @election_data}

found that the Yes campaign had taken the lead for the first time,
with 51 per cent of support, compared to the No campaign's 49 per
cent.
This is how the polls looked on September 7:

On September 8 a TNS survey found support for independence
had jumped six points in the last month, putting the yes vote at
38% and the no vote at 39%.
This is the trend over time:

Our poll data, supplied by WhatScotlandThinks.org, takes an
average of polls taken by Angus Reid, Ipsos Mori, TNS­BMRB,
Panelbase, Lord Ashcroft Polls, YouGov, ICM, Progressive
Scottish Opinion and Survation.
Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said: "A close finish looks
likely, and a ‘yes’ victory is now a real possibility."
Read our analysis of the polls by age, gender and region »
How the referendum will happen
• Four million people who live and are registered to vote in
Scotland, including those aged 16­17, will be allowed to vote
• Polls will open from 7am until 10pm on September 18 and voters
will be faced with a single question: should Scotland be an
independent country? They will only be able to vote 'yes' or 'no'.
• Only a majority of 51 per cent is needed to secure victory.
• Votes will be counted overnight in each of Scotland's 32 local
authorities and the results will be announce on the morning of
September 19

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