Thursday, January 14, 2016

Ever so slowly, the euro zone economy awakes

Moribund. Decrepit. Sclerotic. Popular words to describe the economy shared by the 19 countries of the euro zone - but perhaps no longer apt.
Very slowly - and primarily because of massive stimulus from the European Central Bank - the euro zone is showing signs of recovery. It is a dawn that policymakers are struggling to nurture into broad daylight.
It also may not be felt equally across the board, viz Spain and Greece's unemployed versus Germany's busy builders.
But putting aside for the moment that the euro zone's nascent recovery is happening just as China is wobbling and financial markets are unhinged, the numbers look generally positive.
Economic growth was running at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the third quarter. While this may not seem robust, it is roughly twice the average annual growth rate between 2003 and 2014 (itself dragged down by the sharp contraction of 2009), and the equal highest rate since 2010.
So, for the euro zone, reasonably good. ECB forecasters and economists polled by Reuters expect it to grow at a slightly faster pace this year at around 1.7 percent.
Other data - though sometimes mixed - also points to a stronger-than-advertised economic performance.
Unemployment has been falling fairly steadily. It was at 10.5 percent in November, which is high, but the lowest in more than four years and well below the 12 percent of 2013.
Consumer confidence is on the rise and economic sentiment is at a more than four-year high. Manufacturing, as measured by purchasing managers' indexes, rose firmly into expansion in 2015, albeit still shy of its 2013 peak.
RELATIVELY SPEAKING
Finding positives in such data risks comparison with a polite visitor complimenting a dreary industrial city on its surprisingly good orchestra.
But given where the euro zone has been - and the many prophets of its political and economic doom - its relative improvement is being noticed.
"The world’s third largest economic bloc is actually doing rather well," said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, which is favoring European equities, bonds and property in its portfolios as a result.
"A number of drivers are supportive," he said, listing "monetary and fiscal policy, a somewhat healthier banking system, better real wages growth helped by lower energy costs, and pent up demand as consumer confidence improves in those countries that have had a hard few years."
The danger is that it could all be knocked down in a second by what the finance minister of non-euro zone Britain, George Osborne, has dubbed a "dangerous cocktail" of threats to the world economy.
Chief of these is the economic slowdown in China, which is the broader European Union's second-biggest trading partner behind the United States. China and the EU trade around 1 billion euros between them a day, according to the European Commission.
UBS calculates that a one percentage point slowdown in Chinese growth would slice 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points off EU growth, which it says "should be manageable".
A similar slowdown in emerging markets would lop 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points off growth.
A case can be made, however, that in Europe - and the euro zone in particular - the economy has been growing even while China and emerging markets have slowed.
In the first half of 2015, for example, big gun Germany's export growth to China fell to just 0.8 percent and engineering exports shrank by 4.9 percent. Yet German gross domestic product (GDP) growth was running at 1.8 percent at last count even with the slide.
The overriding issue, though, is that the ECB's 60 billion euro ($66 billion) a month stimulus package is in no danger of ending and can offset much of the impact of trouble overseas.
Lower commodity prices will help too, whatever the concerns about deflation.
Of course, were the United States and the world economy as a whole to have a serious wobble, the euro zone would too.


But for now, the negative adjectives about the euro zone may be overdone.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Sanctions impact on Russia to be longer term, U.S. says BRUSSELS | BY ROBIN EMMOTT

Western sanctions on Moscow are intended to exert long-term pressure on Russia and not to push it "over the economic cliff," a U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday.
EU and U.S. restrictions imposed on Moscow in 2014 over the Ukraine conflict shaved about 1.5 percent off Russian economic output in 2015, the official said, citing data from the International Monetary Fund.
The effect of falling world oil prices was far greater, said the official, who requested anonymity, meaning that Russia's economy shrank 3.8 percent in 2015.
"The direct effect is pretty small ... at about 1 to 1.5 percent. It's the indirect effect that's larger," the official said, adding that international companies previously considering 20-year investments in Russia were scaling back to five years.
"The sanctions are designed not to push Russia over the economic cliff," the official, who was on a visit to Brussels, said. "That would be bad for the Russian people."
Sanctions on Russia's banking, energy and defense sectors, imposed from July 2014, are part of the West's efforts to pressure Russia to help end the crisis in eastern Ukraine, which has killed more than 9,000 people since April 2014.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was quoted on Monday as telling Germany's Bild newspaper that sanctions "are severely harming Russia", although he also noted a bigger impact from global oil oversupply that is weakening energy prices.
With neither the West nor Russia able to resolve the Ukraine crisis so far, the European Union and the United States will keep economic sanctions on Russia until the end of July 2016.
That means Russian companies cannot borrow from the EU and the U.S. banks and on markets for more than 30 days, limiting oil producers such as Rosneft from raising funds for investment.
"From what we know and from my conversations with market participants, other countries are not bridging the gap," the official said, although he added that China has offered some financing at higher rates and with shorter maturities.


Any lifting of sanctions on Russia is tied to the implementation of a peace deal on Ukraine which was negotiated by the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia almost a year ago.

Catalonia parliament elects new pro-independence leader

Catalonia parliament elects new pro-independence leader

© Lluis Gene, AFP | Catalonia’s newly elected pro-independence leader, Carles Puigdemont, in Barcelona on January 10, 2016
Text by NEWS WIRES
Latest update : 2016-01-10

The majority secessionist lawmakers in Catalonia's parliament voted in a new leader Sunday, tasking him with overseeing the wealthy region's breakaway from Spain in a last-minute show of unity after months of bitter infighting.

Carles Puigdemont was elected regional president with 70 votes for, 63 against and two abstentions, giving Catalonia's high-profile independence movement a fresh lease of life and drawing a sharp rebuke from Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who vowed to fight for his country's unity.
"The government won't allow a single act that could harm the unity and sovereignty of Spain," Rajoy warned in a live, televised appearance in Madrid.
After months of acrimony, Catalonia's pro-independence faction that won regional parliamentary elections in September finally came to an agreement this weekend over who should lead the new local government.
The focus of the squabble had been Artur Mas, the incumbent, separatist regional president whom the far-left CUP party – part of the secessionist faction that won the polls – rejected over his support for austerity and corruption scandals linked to his party.
And with Mas stubbornly refusing to step aside as a weekend deadline to form a government loomed,Catalonia seemed to be heading for fresh elections, which would have been the fourth since 2010.
But in a surprise move Mas agreed to step aside on Saturday, naming the relatively unknown politician Puigdemont as his successor.
The 53-year-old mayor of Girona – who comes from a fervently pro-independence family – will now appoint his cabinet.
"We need... to start the process to set up an independent state in Catalonia," Puigdemont said in a speech to the northeastern region's parliament ahead of the vote.
'Power vacuum in Madrid'
The last-ditch agreement to form a Catalan government stands in stark contrast to the situation in Madrid, where the national government is in limbo following inconclusive December polls.
Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) came top in the December 20 elections but lost its absolute majority, leaving him struggling to form a coalition government as other parties refuse to support him.
"The (separatist) coalition is profiting from the power vacuum in Madrid," headlined online daily El Espanol on Sunday.
So far the PP's traditional Socialist rivals (PSOE), who came second in the elections, have refused to back him.
But ironically, the newly reached separatist deal may put pressure on the PSOE to stand united with the PP over its opposition to Catalonia breaking away from Spain.
"We reiterate our support for the caretaker government to enforce the law and defend the Constitution," Socialist lower house parliamentary group spokesman Antonio Hernando told reporters earlier Sunday.
And Fernando Martinez-Maillo of the PP stressed that there was "no better way to confront secessionism than to see the Popular Party and the Socialist party join forces."
'Alarm bells' ringing again
One of Spain's 17 semi-autonomous regions with its own language and customs, Catalonia already enjoys a large degree of freedom in education, health and policing.
But fed up after years of demands for greater autonomy on the taxation front – complaining it pays more to Madrid than it gets back – the region veered towards separatism.
Polls show most in the 7.5-million-strong region support staging a Scotland-style referendum on independence – which Rajoy has categorically refused to allow – but in fact are divided over whether to make the break from Spain.
In November, separatist lawmakers passed a motion in parliament breaking from Spain and calling for complete independence in 18 months.
The move was later ruled illegal by Spain's Constitutional Court, but Catalonia's secessionist lawmakers quickly rose up in defiance, saying the resolution was here to stay.
As week after week passed with no government in sight, however, outsiders began to doubt that the separatists would ever be able to implement their independence plan.
Mas on Sunday attempted to put these doubts to bed.
"In the past few weeks (in Madrid), they were saying enthusiastically that Catalonia was sinking, they were so enthusiastic that they had started to relax," he told members of his CDC party on Sunday.
"But from yesterday, all the alarm bells started ringing again."

Singer M.I.A. blasts 'arrogant' PSG over refugee video row

British singer M.I.A. branded French football club PSG “arrogant” on Tuesday after it demanded she remove images of a modified version of the club’s shirt in the video for her latest single “Borders”, which deals with the refugee crisis.

The war of words erupted after the singer on Monday tweeted a copy of a legal letter she received from PSG’s deputy chief executive Jean-Claude Blanc in which he which he warned her she could face legal action if she did not remove the club’s shirt from the video and compensate the Qatar-ownedFrench league leaders for “harm suffered”.
In the video, M.I.A., real name Mathangi Arulpragasam, can be seen sporting the club’s white away shirt. The logo of the club’s sponsor, “Fly Emirates”, has been changed to “Fly Pirates”.
The video also shows images of migrants climbing fences and packed into boats in a commentary on the recent influx of people into Europe fleeing war and poverty.
“We consider that the use of our brand and image in a video clip denouncing the treatment of refugees is a source of discredit to our club and distorts its public communication policy,” Blanc’s letter reads.
“More than being surprised, we simply do not understand why we are associated, through our logo and the official jersey of our team’s players, to such denunciation [sic],” it says.
‘Extremely arrogant’
Speaking about the matter in depth for the first time, M.I.A. told UK magazine Noisey in an interview published Tuesday of her dismay at the club’s reaction.
“I just find it extremely arrogant that they are trying to police something like that,” she said.
She dismissed suggestions she had chosen the PSG shirt because of the club’s sponsorship by Qatar and United Arab Emirates  – countries that have been criticised for their treatment of refugees and migrants.

Sweden, Denmark impose stricter border controls to stem migrant influx

All train, bus and ferry passengers traveling from Denmark to Sweden will from Monday be required to show photo identification before being allowed across the border in a drastic move by the Swedish government to stem an unprecedented migrant influx.

Denmark imposed temporary identity checks on its border with Germany on Monday
following a similar move by Sweden, dealing a double blow to Europe's fraying passport-free Schengen area amid a record influx of migrants.
Sweden began checking documents of travellers from Denmark on Monday for the first time in half a century, causing delays of up to 50 minutes for trains and buses crossing the 4.9 mile (7.9 km) Oresund Bridge, Europe's longest combined road and rail bridge. However private vehicles were exempt from the checks.
Denmark's prime minister said Sweden's move gave his country no option but to impose its own border controls and he appealed to the European Union to take "collective decisions" to better protect its external borders against the tide of migrants.
"The Swedish ID checks can increase the risk of a large number of illegal immigrants to accumulate in and around Copenhagen," Lars Lokke Rasmussen told a news conference in Copenhagen, justifying the new controls on the German border.
Last year some 163,000 refugees sought asylum in Sweden, the largest number for any EU country relative to its population. But with arrivals running at around 10,000 a week in November, mostly travelling through Denmark, the Swedish government has said it is time to tighten border controls and asylum rules.
"A dark day for our Nordic region," former centre-right Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt said on his Twitter feed on Monday to describe the imposition of border checks.
Thousands of commuters daily use the Oresund Bridge - familiar to fans of the 'Nordic noir' crime drama series "The Bridge" - to shuttle by car, train and bus between the Danish capital Copenhagen and the Swedish city of Malmo.
Travellers expressed dismay at the new checks.
"I paid 230 euros for these tickets. This is Europe, not Africa. Why these checks?" said Gezahegn Abebe, an Ethiopian migrant living in Norway as he stood in the train station by Copenhagen airport before trying to head to Sweden.
Returning home from a visit to Germany, Abebe said he had not been allowed through by security guards when he showed his Norwegian residence permit. Unlike Sweden and Denmark, Norway is not in the EU but it is a member of the Schengen zone.
"They said this is not a passport. If you don't have a passport you can't go," Abebe said.

Breaking point
More than one million migrants fleeing conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and beyond sought shelter in Europe in 2015 and many more are expected to come during 2016.
The unprecedented numbers have strained to breaking point the EU's free movement policy and its attempts to create a single economic area, with several countries temporarily re-introducing border controls.
Rasmussen said the Danish border controls would last for 10 days but could be extended.
Officials in Germany, which itself is struggling to absorb about a million migrants who arrived during 2015, said they were paying close attention to the new Danish border checks and their possible impact on the northward flow of migrants into Denmark.
Sweden has long been proud of its self-proclaimed status as a 'humanitarian superpower' and its decision in November to tighten border controls and asylum rules came close to bringing down Prime Minister Stefan Lofven's minority coalition
government of Social Democrats and Greens.
Norway swiftly followed Sweden's lead and has announced 40 proposals to tighten asylum rules.
ID-free travel within the Nordic region - long a popular magnet for migrants due to its high standards of living and generous social welfare benefits - dates back long before the Schengen accord to the 1950s, when Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland signed a passport union.
Around 15,000 commuters cross the strait between Sweden and Denmark every day and there are worries that businesses in Sweden's Skane region and in Copenhagen will be hit.
Denmark's state-owned rail operator said the ID controls would cost it nearly 1 million Danish crowns ($147,000) a day.
Danish employers fear fewer Swedes will want to cross the bridge to work in Denmark as a result of the new rules.
"Already now the lack of workers is a problem and if the Swedes do not want to work here due to a longer commute, the problem will be even bigger," Pernille Knudsen, Vice Chief Executive of the Confederation of Danish Employers, told Danish newspaper Borsen.
"The Swedish border control is a potential killer of growth for the Danish economy."

German police arrest hundreds after anti-migrant protest

German police on Tuesday said more than 200 people were arrested after masked right-wing supporters went on a rampage Monday night at an anti-Islamisation rally in the eastern city of Leipzig.

The extremists, who are known to police as football hooligans, are suspected of going on a rampage during a march by supporters of the anti-migrant Pegida (Patriotic Europeans against the Islamisation of the West) movement.
Monday night’s march in Leipzig was organised by the local branch of the Pegida movement, known as Legida.
The peaceful demonstration was a protest against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open door policy for refugees.
German police said a group of right-wing extremists and football hooligans went on a rampage as the march proceeded in the largely left-wing Leipzig district of Connewitz.
Leading German news site Spiegel Online published pictures of destruction in the neighbourhood, including a kebab shop with a smashed window.
Emotions are running high in German cities after gangs of young migrant men sexually assaulted women at New Year's Eve celebrations in mass attacks in Cologne and other towns.
The attacks have deepened public scepticism towards Merkel's refugee policy and her mantra that Germany can cope with the 1.1 million migrants who arrived in the country last year. It has also fuelled right-wing groups.
‘Merkel, take your Muslims with you…’
As roughly 2,000 anti-Muslim Legida supporters marched peacefully in the city centre, police said a separate group of 211 people walked through Connewitz district before setting off fireworks, erecting barricades and vandalising property. The top floor of one building caught fire.
The group carried a placard reading "Leipzig bleibt Helle", or "Leipzig stays light", an apparent reference to the skin colour of residents.
"The 211 people were to a not insignificant degree already on record as being right-wing sympathisers and or members of violent sporting groups," said police, adding officers brought the situation under control relatively quickly.
Self-styled German soccer 'hooligans' tend to join right-wing groups on marches, sometimes starting fights.
The police put the right-wingers in a bus which was then attacked by left-wing supporters.
At the Legida protest, people shouted "Merkel must go" and held placards showing the chancellor in a Muslim veil and reading "Merkel, take your Muslims with you and get lost".
With the number of migrants arriving in Europe's biggest economy set to rise further this year, Merkel is under growing pressure to toughen her line on refugees.
An INSA poll in the German daily, Bild, put support for Merkel's conservative bloc down 1 point at 35 percent, with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has strongly criticised the Merkel's refugee policy, up 2 points at 11.5 percent.

French Alps avalanche kills seven climbers

Seven people were killed Tuesday when an avalanche swept them away in the French Alps, a local official told AFP, the deadliest snowslide to hit the popular mountain range this year.

"The toll has increased - seven people have died," said the official, Pierre Besnard, who had earlier put the number of deaths at five, with two people missing.
He added that rescuers were continuing their search to make sure there were no other victims.
The avalanche struck around midday at the Snow Dome in the Alps' Massif des Ecrins, an easy-to-access 4,015-metre (13,170-feet) high mountain that is hugely popular with climbers.
It swept away eight people, among whom were foreign climbers, police said, adding they did not yet know their nationalities. One person was injured.
Climbers and skiers are sporadically caught in avalanches in the popular Alps, particularly during the winter season, but this is the deadliest accident so far this year.
In January, six skiers were carried away by an avalanche in the Queyras mountain range of the Alps, and just over two months later, three died in the Massif des Ecrins.
Christian Flagella, a member of the police force in the Hautes-Alpes region where the mountain is located, said the avalanche was likely triggered when a layer of snow separated and hurtled down the hill.
"The conditions are winter-like at the moment," he said.

Suicide blast kills tourists, mostly Germans, in Istanbul

Latest update : 2016-01-13

A suicide bomber, who is believed to have entered Turkey from Syria, blew himself up in the heart of Istanbul’s historic tourist district Tuesday, killing at least 10 people, mostly German tourists.

The blast ripped Istanbul’s Sultanahmet Square, near the iconic Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia -- among the world’s most visited tourist sites -- around 10:20am local time.
'GERMANY IN SHOCK'
Witnesses reported hearing a loud blast at the square, and video footage showed police and ambulances at the scene shortly after the attack.
“I was in my office on the third floor and I heard the explosion,” said Ismet Bogan, who works in a travel agency located near Sultanahmet Square, in an interview with FRANCE 24. “We couldn’t go out right away because there could have been a second explosion. After around ten minutes, I went out and Turkish police had sealed off the square.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the attack in a speech to Turkish ambassadors in the capital, Ankara, which was broadcast live on national TV.
"I condemn the terror incident in Istanbul, assessed to be an attack by a suicide bomber with Syrian origin," said Erdogan.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the Islamic State (IS) group was responsible for the suicide attack. He identified the 10 victims as foreign tourists, mostly German nationals.
Davutoglu said he spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel hours after the attack and had expressed his condolences.
A Peruvian national was also killed and another wounded in the attack, according to the Peruvian Foreign Ministry.
There were no official figures of the number of wounded although Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus said two of the injured were in serious condition
Conflicting reports on origins of attacker
Reporting from Istanbul, FRANCE 24’s Jasper Mortimer said Turkish authorities had identified the suicide bomber as “a Syrian man who would have turned 28 this year. Turkish officials say there is a high probability he worked for the Islamic State group, and of the three militant groups operating in Turkey at the moment, it is the Islamic State group that has been carrying out most of the bombings in public places recently.”
A number of militant groups operate in Turkey, including the Kurdish PKK group and the Marxist-Leninist DHKP-C.
So far no militant group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Previous attacks believed to have been conducted by the IS group, including a deadly October 10 attack in Ankara, have not been officially claimed by the IS group.
Hours after Tuesday's attack, there were conflicting reports surrounding the origin and nationality of the suicide bomber.
Erdogan and other senior Turkish officials identified the attacker as a Syrian national. However, leading Turkish daily, Hurriyet, identified the bomber as Saudi-born Nabil Fadli.
According to Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Kurtulmus, the suicide bomber is believed to have recently entered Turkey from Syria and was not on Turkey's watch list of suspected militants.
Kurtulmus said thousands of people were being tracked for suspected militant links but the bomber was not one of them.
Turkey takes on the IS group
Monday’s suicide bombing was the latest in a series of attacks, attributed to the IS group, that have ripped Turkey in recent months, including the October 2014 Ankara bombing, which killed 100 people.
Following an initial reluctance by Ergodan’s government to restrict the movement of Islamist fighters across the 900-kilometre Turkish-Syrian border, Ankara has closed the border and is taking a more active role in the coalition fight against the IS group.Turkey has also granted the international coalition access to its Incirlik base, a move that has put the country in the IS group’s crosshairs.
“Things have changed,” noted Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24’s expert on jihadist groups. “Turkey is fighting the Islamic State group along with the coalition and a lot of the propaganda material put out by the Islamic State group feature Turkish jihadis threatening to conduct operations in Turkey, calling the Turkish population to rise against Erdogan, who is called Taghut,” said Nasr, using a term in jihadist discourse for someone who has crossed the line or rebelled.
The attack has raised fears of further damage to Turkey’s tourism industry, which has already been hit by a diplomatic row between Ankara and Moscow following the Turkish downing of a Russian plane by the Syrian border.
“The tourism industry has already suffered a lot this year,” said Mortimer. “While walking to Sultanahmet Square, which is surrounded by shops and restaurants, I saw no customers in the shops, and shopkeepers and restaurant owners were sitting by their doors with very long faces.”
(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)