Monday, November 30, 2015

Putin says Turkey shot down Russian plane to defend IS oil supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday the reason Turkey downed a Russian warplane last week was that it wanted to protect supplies of oil from Islamic State.
Putin, speaking at the global climate conference in Paris, added that the decision to shoot down the plane was a "huge mistake" and that he had not met Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Monday, despite them both being in Paris.
"We have received additional data which confirm that Islamic State oil ... enters the territory of Turkey," Putin said. "The decision to shoot down the plane was dictated specifically by a desire to defend supplies."
Erdogan has called claims that Turkey buys oil from Islamic State "slander".
Relations between Russia and Turkey have nosedived since Turkey shot down the Russian bomber near the Syrian-Turkish border on Nov. 24.
Turkish officials have said the plane violated Turkish airspace and had been warned repeatedly. Moscow says the aircraft was over Syria, where Russia is carrying out an air campaign to support the forces of President Bashar al-Assad in a four-year-old civil war.
Putin on Saturday signed a decree imposing economic sanctions on Turkey, while Erdogan has said Turkey will not apologize over the incident.


On Monday Russia said the ban would be mainly of agricultural products and it might expand the sanctions if needed.

At NATO, Turkey remains defiant over Russian jet

Turkey's prime minister dismissed on Monday any suggestion Ankara should apologize for downing a Russian warplane in its airspace last week, after winning strong NATO support for the right to defend itself.
Six days after NATO member Turkey shot down the Russian bomber in the first known incident of its kind since the Cold War, calls for calm have gone largely unheeded as Ankara refuses to back down and Russia responds with sanctions.
"No country should ask us to apologize," Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters following a meeting with NATO's secretary general at alliance headquarters in Brussels.
"The protection of our land borders, our airspace, is not only a right, it is a duty," he said. "We apologize for committing mistakes, not for doing our duty."
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Nov. 26 he was waiting for an apology after Turkey's air force shot down the Su-24 fighter jet close to the Turkey-Syria border. Russian officials have said the plane was at no time over Turkey.
Putin has also said Russia told the United States of the Russian jet's flight plan, something the U.S. envoy to NATO denied on Monday, saying U.S.-Russia cooperation in Syria was limited to broader rules on safety measures.
"The U.S. data that I have seen corroborates Turkey's version of events. The airplane was in Turkey, it was engaged in Turkey, it had been warned repeatedly," Ambassador Douglas Lute told reporters.
"There was no flight plan issued for a violation of NATO airspace."
Following the meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, in which Turkey won the alliance's firm support for the right to self-defense, Davutoglu also warned that such incidents continued to be a risk as long as Russia and the U.S-led coalition bombing Islamic State in Syria worked separately.
"If there are two coalitions functioning in the same airspace against ISIL, these types of incidents will be difficult to prevent," Davutoglu said, referring to Islamic State militants.
Seeking to calm the situation, Stoltenberg called for new emergency procedures to be agreed with Moscow to avoid triggering conflict by accident, whether that was during bombing raids in Syria or war games conducted by Russia and NATO.
VIENNA DOCUMENT
NATO foreign ministers are expected to discuss such procedures at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday as Russia's military activities from the Baltics to the Middle East come right up to - and sometimes stray over - NATO borders.
Stoltenberg suggested revamping the Cold War-era treaty known as the Vienna document, which sets out the rules for large-scale exercises and other military activity, as well as telephone hotlines and other military communication channels.
"It has to be modernized because there are several loopholes," Stoltenberg said.
Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday underscored the coordination with Russia that allowed Israel to avoid flare-ups after a Russian warplane operating in Syria strayed into Israeli-controlled airspace. It turned back after the two countries conferred.
Moscow's surprise intervention in the four-year-old Syrian civil war in September wrong-footed the West and put Turkey, which shares a long border with Syria, directly at odds with Russian support for the Assad regime there.
The downing of the Russian warplane has wrecked both Turkish-Russian relations and the French-led diplomatic effort to bring Moscow closer into the fold of nations seeking to destroy Islamic State through military action in Syria.
While Russia says it is also targeting Islamic State, most of its air strikes have been against other Assad opponents, including groups actively supported by Turkey.


British parliament to vote on joining anti-IS campaign in Syria

Britain’s parliament looks set to vote in favour of joining the bombing campaign against the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria on Wednesday, paving the way for sorties by UK planes to start within days.

Prime Minister David Cameron, who stepped up pressure for air strikes after last month’s Paris attacks, will lead the House of Commons into more than 10 hours of debate on joining the US-led international military action.
Ministers are confident that lawmakers will then vote “Yes”, meaning the first Royal Air Force (RAF) planes could be bombing targets in Syria by the end of the week.
Cameron insists military action is needed to prevent attacks like the ones that killed 130 people in Paris last month, while insisting it will be accompanied by a diplomatic push to resolve the crisis in Syria.
“I will be making the arguments and I hope as many members of parliament across all parties will support me as possible,” he said on the eve of the vote.
But many experts, lawmakers and members of the public remain sceptical, and several thousand anti-war protesters marched in central London on Saturday and Tuesday.
Military experts question how much difference Britain will make to the coalition against IS jihadists in Syria, adding the move may be more about Britain wanting to be seen to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with allies like France and the United States.
“It will not make a big operational difference,” Professor Malcolm Chalmers of military think-tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told AFP.
“It is important symbolically, useful operationally, but not transformative.”
Cameron “emotionally feels very strongly that he should support France in its time of need,” added Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank.
Britain already has eight Tornado fighter jets plus an unknown number of drones involved in strikes on IS targets in Iraq, an operation it joined last year.
However, it currently only conducts surveillance and intelligence missions over Syria.
In a rare move, weekly Prime Minister’s Questions have been cancelled and the parliamentary diary cleared for an all-day debate on the Syria strikes, with a vote expected around 2200 GMT or even later.
The motion up for debate stresses that Britain will not deploy ground combat troops while noting that allies including France and the United States had requested British assistance.
Clear majority?
Cameron announced the vote on Monday after the main opposition Labour party let its MPs have a free vote rather than trying to force them to oppose air strikes in line with the views of its left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Labour’s decision means dozens of its MPs who want military action will now likely vote with Cameron and the government, meaning he should get the “clear majority” he said was essential for action.
However Labour remains deeply divided, prompting Corbyn to take to the airwaves Tuesday in a last-ditch appeal to his own MPs to vote against air strikes.
“We are going to kill people in their homes by our bombs,” he told BBC radio.
“Think of the complications and the implications of what we are doing and please cast your vote against supporting this government’s military endeavours in Syria.”
In a blow to Cameron on the eve of the vote, parliament’s foreign affairs committee said he had “not adequately addressed” its concerns on Syria air strikes.
The committee has cast doubt on the legality of the move, its effectiveness in the absence of reliable allies on the ground and its usefulness in the context of finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
While Cameron is expected to win, he will likely face fresh questions from MPs about his claim that there are 70,000 moderate opposition fighters in Syria ready to help secure territory following air strikes.
Scarred by the memory of unpopular wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, London has played a smaller role in recent foreign military actions, leading to concerns that Britain’s clout is diminishing on the world stage.
Parliament rejected Cameron’s plan for action against the Assad regime in Syria in 2013.
“A willingness to deploy will allay the concern the UK is not a reliable partner,” RUSI’s Chalmers said.
A YouGov opinion poll last week found that 59 percent approved of Britain joining air strikes in Syria, compared to 20 percent who disapproved, but a survey published on Wednesday showed only 48 percent approved with 31 percent against.
(AFP)

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Paris attacks guns 'traced to German arms dealer'

German prosecutors said Friday they were investigating whether an illegal arms dealer had sold four assault rifles to a person in the French capital and whether there were "possible links to the attacks in Paris".

Police had found several handguns during a search of his home, said prosecutors in the nearby city of Stuttgart.
"Investigations so far suggest that the accused could have sold four assault rifles to a buyer in Paris in November," said the prosecutors' statement.
"Possible links to the attacks in Paris are being checked," it added, referring to the series of gun and explosive assaults that claimed 130 lives on November 13.
Earlier Friday, the mass-circulation Bild daily reported that the arms dealer, whom it identified as Sascha W., had sold two AK47s and two Zastava M70s on November 7 to an Arab customer in Paris.
"French investigators believe that the weapons were allegedly used in the attacks in Paris," said Bild.
Bild said the suspect was accused of having hawked the weapons on the Darknet -- a hidden network used for both legal and illicit ends -- using the name "DW Guns".
Four emails on his smartphone had shown that he sold "four Kalashnikov assault rifles to an Arab in Paris", added the newspaper.
The prosecutor's office said the man was arrested Tuesday on suspicion of converting starter guns into deadly weapons and selling them on the Darknet.
"He is believed to have built the parts for this himself," the spokesman said, adding that only pistols had been found.

Turkey to hand over body of downed pilot to Russia

The body of the pilot killed when Turkey shot down a Russian jet was taken to Turkey late on Saturday to be handed over to Russia, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.

The body is being treated in accordance with the Orthodox tradition, Davutoglu said in a news conference in Ankara on Sunday before going to Brussels for a meeting with EU leaders on migration.
He did not say how the body was delivered to Hatay in southern Turkey but said Russia’s military attache was going there on Sunday as part of procedures to recover the remains.
Relations between Turkey and Russia have sharply deteriorated since Tuesday’s incident, with Russia imposing economic sanctions and revoking a visa-free agreement, while Turkey has sought to cool tensions, seeing the Paris climate change talks that start this week as a chance to mend ties.
Davutoglu said that with different coalitions operating in Syria with differing objectives, similar incidents to that of the downing of the Russian jet could happen unless there was information sharing and coordination.
Both United States along with other allies, including Turkey, as well as Russia are carrying out air campaigns against Islamic State and other groups.
Russia and Turkey have accused each other of aiding Islamic State, but both say they are battling the militants who have taken swathes of land in Iraq and Syria.
However, Russia sides with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and has been accused by the West of using its bombing campaign to help him instead of targeting Islamic State.
Turkey meanwhile wants Assad gone and has been supporting rebels fighting him.

EU, Turkey agree €3bn aid deal to stem migrant crisis

The European Union and Turkey agreed on a deal to stem the migrant crisis, including a three-billion-euro ($3.2-billion) aid package for Syrian refugees in Turkey, EU president Donald Tusk said after a summit in Brussels on Sunday.

"Our agreement sets out a clear plan for the timely re-establishment of order at our shared frontier. We will also step up our assistance to Syrian refugees in Turkey through a new refugee facility of three billion euros," Tusk told a press conference with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
The EU also agreed to open a new chapter in Turkey's stalled bid for membership of the bloc in exchange for Turkey's cooperation in reducing the flow of refugees and migrants, Tusk said.
Visa requirements for Turkish citizens visiting the EU's passport-free Schengen area would also be relaxed by October 2016, he said.
Brussels would "monitor closely at least once a month" the progress being made by Turkey, Tusk added.
Davutoglu said the deal would "re-energise" Turkey's EU accession process, which has made little headway since it started in 2005.
"This is a historic day and a historic meeting, the first meeting of this kind since 11 years," the Turkish premier added.
"No one can guarantee anything on the Syrian issue, we don't know what will go on in Syria, but I can assure that Turkey will be fulfilling all the promises of the joint plan. Our purpose with the EU is to prevent new waves of refugees from Syria and to manage the existing refugee crisis," he said.
"This three billion euros is to be spent for refugees in Turkey, it's not for Turkey."
(AFP)

Pipe bomb explodes near Istanbul metro

Five people were injured when a pipe bomb exploded on an overpass near an Istanbul metro station on Tuesday, the district mayor said, halting some train operations and heightening security fears in Europe’s biggest city.

Turkey has been on high alert since more than 100 people were killed by two suicide bombers in the capital Ankara in October, three months after a similar attack at a town near the Syrian border in July left 33 dead.
Tuesday’s blast near the Bayrampasa metro station came at the height of the evening rush hour, district Mayor Atilla Aydiner told A Haber television. Bayrampasa is a residential and industrial area on the European side of Istanbul.
Another broadcaster earlier reported that one person had been killed but Aydiner confirmed only five injuries.
Grainy CCTV footage showed a large flash of light on the overpass followed by what appeared to be burning embers showering to the ground as cars drove below.
Photographs on social media showed what appeared to be dozens of people walking alongside overground train tracks after trains had been halted. Although Istanbul’s metro is largely underground, it runs above ground in some places, including around Bayrampasa.
Tuesday’s blast was much smaller than the ones in Ankara and the town of Suruc near the Syrian border, which are believed to have been carried out by Islamic State militants.
Turkey, a NATO member, has carried out air strikes against the Islamist insurgents in neighbouring Syria as part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the jihadist movement.
It also faces security threats from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), whose militants often attack police and security in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, and the far-left Revolutionary People’s Liberation Army-Front (DHKP-C).
The DHKP-C, which is considered a terrorist organisation by the United States and Ankara, said that one of its members was involved in an attack on the U.S. consulate in August.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

After Paris attacks, pope speaks out against insulting religion

Pope Francis defended freedom of expression Thursday following the attack on a French satirical magazine deemed to have mocked the Prophet Muhammad — but added that it was wrong to provoke others by insulting their religion, and that one could "expect" a reaction to such provocation.
"You can't provoke, you can't insult the faith of others, you can't make fun of faith," he told reporters aboard a plane from Sri Lanka to the Philippines — where 80 percent of the population practice Roman Catholicism — on the second leg of his Asian tour.
Francis, who has condemned the Paris attacks, was asked about the relationship between freedom of religion and freedom of expression.
"I think both freedom of religion and freedom of expression are both fundamental human rights," he said, adding that he was talking specifically about the Paris killings.
"Everyone has not only the freedom and the right but the obligation to say what he thinks for the common good,” Francis said. “We have the right to have this freedom openly without offending."
To emphasize his point, he turned to an aide and said: "It is true that you must not react violently, but although we are good friends if (he) says a curse word against my mother, he can expect a punch, it's normal."
"You can't make a toy out of the religions of others," he added. “These people provoke and then [something can happen]. In freedom of expression there are limits."
The attack last week at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo left 12 people dead, after French authorities said brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi went on a shooting rampage at the publication’s offices in Paris. A total of 17 people, including journalists and police, were killed in three days of violence that began with the assault at Charlie Hebdo, which is known for its satirical attacks on Islam and other religions.
The paper had been repeatedly threatened over its caricatures of Muhammad — and was firebombed in 2011. Muslims believe their faith forbids any physical depiction of the prophet. The publication's first edition since the attacks, which featured a cartoon of Muhammad on the cover on the 5 million copies printed, sold out before dawn Thursday in Paris for a second straight day.
The Vatican and four prominent French imams recently issued a joint declaration that denounced the attacks but urged the media to treat religions with respect.
Francis, who has urged Muslim leaders in particular to speak out against extremism, went a step further when asked by a French journalist about whether there should be limits when freedom of expression meets freedom of religion.
Referring to past religious wars, such as the Crusades sanctioned by the Roman Catholic Church against Islam, the pope said, "Let's consider our own history. How many wars of religion have we had? Even we were sinners, but you can't kill in the name of God. That is an aberration."
Francis was also asked if he felt vulnerable to an assassination attempt or other attack by extremists. Earlier this week, the Vatican denied Italian media reports that U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials had informed the Vatican that there could be an imminent attack.
Francis said that he was more worried about others being hurt in an eventual attack, and that he was confident about security measures in the Vatican and during his trips.
"I am in God's hands," he said, joking about having asked God to spare him a painful death.
"Am I afraid? You know that I have a defect, a nice dose of being careless. If anything should happen to me, I have told the Lord, I ask you only to give me the grace that it doesn't hurt because I am not courageous when confronted with pain. I am very timid," he said.

Monday, November 16, 2015

Greece debt crisis: Has Grexit been avoided?

Greece has negotiated a eurozone deal for a possible third bailout - but that does not mean its future in the single currency is guaranteed.
Short-term financing has been arranged to help Greece get through July and emergency funding has enabled the banks to reopen for the first time since June.
But the bailout has been widely criticised and there are many voices still arguing that Greece should leave the eurozone, also known as a "Grexit".

Has the immediate threat of Grexit gone?

For now, the threat of a Grexit is diminished. But it was a genuine possibility in the hours before the 13 July bailout deal was hammered out. Since then, Greece has successfully negotiated the first hurdles put up by its eurozone partners.
The most important obstacle was in the Greek parliament, where the Syriza-led government survived a rebellion and pushed through tough reforms on VAT, pensions and early retirement which eurozone partners said were an immediate test for the government to pass.
That triggered a deal on €7.16bn in emergency funding, to enable the government to pay its arrears with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its July bill from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Significantly, it has also prompted the ECB to lift its limit on emergency cash assistance for Greek banks, which reopen on 20 July, three weeks after they were shut.

Will Greece return to normal?

Not for a while, and it depends on weeks of negotiations on the terms of the third bailout.
Capital controls, imposed when the ECB froze emergency liquidity assistance for the banks (ELA), are unlikely to be lifted for some time. So while the banks are open again, cash withdrawals will be limited to €420 per week.
The reality is that Greece has not been normal for several years. The financial crisis hit Greece and its banks hard. The jobless rate is above 25% and youth unemployment is as high as 50%.

How big is the risk of Grexit?

If negotiations fall through, Greece could still leave the single currency.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he was unhappy with the bailout deal he negotiated with other eurozone leaders but he was faced with a clear choice: "A deal we largely disagreed with, or a chaotic default."
So there is a chance a government that does not believe in a bailout deal and that relied on opposition MPs to get it past parliament might not last to see it through.
There are plenty of politicians and economists who believe Greece should leave the euro, most notably German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who believes Greece needs debt relief, which is not seen as legal within the single currency.
But at a European level, politically the decision appears to have been taken to do whatever it takes to keep Greece in. And for now Mr Schaeuble's arguments have been over-ruled.
Austria's centre-left Chancellor Werner Faymann has said it would be "totally wrong" for Greece to leave, and ECB Chairman Mario Draghi has been even clearer. The ECB's mandate was, he said, "to act based on the assumption that Greece is and will be a member of the euro area".

What about a temporary Grexit?

This was an idea put forward by Mr Schaeuble, who called for a Greek "time-out from the euro area", enabling the Athens government to restructure its debts.
He and many others believe Greek debt is unsustainable and that a debt write-off - a "haircut" - would make more sense outside the euro as it is not allowed inside it.
A time-out was discussed by eurozone leaders, but the terms of re-entering the eurozone are so stringent that a time-out would in reality have become permanent. For France's President Hollande, there is "no such thing as temporary Grexit".

Would Grexit make more sense than staying in?

Certainly, there is a clear attraction for many Greeks of abandoning the euro, when faced with many more years of eurozone austerity and a new debt burden of €86bn (£62bn).
But it all depends on whether or not Greece is allowed to restructure its debts.
The International Monetary Fund revealed it had warned eurozone leaders that Greece's debt would peak at 200% of GDP, far higher than previous estimates. Its "dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability" required debt relief "on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date".
The only reference to potential debt relief in the eurozone deal is of "possible longer grace and payment periods". And Germany's Angela Merkel said there was a plan to consider restructuring later in the year, after the "first review" of the bailout.
The European Commission said "a very substantial debt re-profiling" was possible if Greece kept to agreed reforms. However a debt write-off was not on the cards.
Greece's former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis certainly believes it will not happen.

What would Grexit look like?

There is no precedent for a country to leave the euro and no-one knows how it might happen.
However, Yanis Varoufakis gave an illuminating idea of the initial steps he had planned for Greece to take towards Grexit in preparation for when the ECB cut off emergency funding for Greek banks.
  • Greece would have issued euro-denominated IOUs
  • A "haircut" would have been made to Greek bonds issued to the ECB in 2012, reducing Greece's debt
  • Control of the Bank of Greece would have been seized from the ECB
His colleagues rejected the plan.
The problem for Greece is the damage already done to the banks. Tens of billions of euros have already been withdrawn from private and business accounts, and capital controls have left Greeks unable to withdraw large sums of cash.
The risk is that a messy default could cause even more harm to the Greek economy.
Greece would suffer instant devaluation and inflation. It could end up a pariah in the international markets for years, much like Argentina in 2002.
Tourism - one of Greece's main earners - would be hit hard, dealing a hammer blow to an ailing economy.
Some economists believe a return to the drachma could eventually benefit the economy, but it is difficult to see anything positive in the short term.

If Greece left the eurozone, what currency would it use?

If Greece were to fall out of the euro, one potential option for the banks would be to reopen with a parallel currency before the revival of Greece's former currency, the drachma.
Another would be to place Greece in a type of eurozone quarantine, where it would use the euro but not be a fully-fledged part of it. After all, Kosovo and Montenegrohave adopted the euro without being inside the eurozone. This method could also be used if Greece were to leave the eurozone on a temporary basis.
Greece could also maintain two euro currencies, with the euro used for transactions and the government paying salaries and pensions in a separate Greek-style euro or even in IOUs.

Why are Greece's finances in such dire straits?

  • Since 2010, the Athens government has been reliant on two EU-IMF bailouts totalling €240bn
  • Greece's last cash injection from international creditors was back in August 2014
  • When the eurozone agreement ran out on 30 June, Mr Tsipras's government also failed to make a key debt repayment to the IMF of €1.5bn
  • Greece's debts now total more than €300bn - about 180% of its GDP
  • http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32332221