WERE Shakespeare living today, he might find a source of inspiration in Serbia. Old enemies shake hands, former friends stab each other in the back, unnatural political alliances are hatched and jail beckons many who recently prospered. In such a fevered atmosphere this month promises to be crucial. Both main political parties are holding meetings that will set the year’s agenda—and should end speculation about early elections.
It ought to be a time of quiet satisfaction. On January 21st Serbia will formally begin accession talks with the European Union—no mean achievement. One reason Serbia has got so far is the good progress in EU-sponsored talks with Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008. For this, Ivica Dacic and Hashim Thaci, the two prime ministers, have been nominated for a Nobel peace prize by some American congressmen. But few are celebrating in Serbia, distracted by a virtual war that has been raging at the top level of politics.
Everyday the news is dominated by the question of if and when there will be an election. The previous one, in 2012, saw the triumph of the new Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) led by Tomislav Nikolic, who is now the country’s president. Despite denials, he is engaged in a bitter conflict with Aleksandar Vucic, the deputy prime minister and current SNS leader.
At the party conference on January 25th Mr Vucic will purge the party of Nikolic supporters. Then he hopes to call an election and, on winning, place his own loyalists in positions of power. “He wants fast reforms, but they will be painful,” says Braca Grubacic, a senior SNS member. With a 69% approval rating, there is little doubt that Mr Vucic would lead the SNS to another victory in an early vote.
One of his goals is to tackle loss-making, debt-crippled, state-subsidised companies that serve in many cases as a substitute social service to keep as many as 60,000 workers off the unemployment rolls. They and their directors, mostly political appointees, says Mr Grubacic, are fortunate, “like pigs lying in warm mud.” The problem is that, in a stagnating economy, the money to keep these enterprises going has run out.
Many are run not by SNS members but by members of the Democratic Party (DS), which was in power until 2012, or by Mr Dacic’s small Socialist Party, which was in coalition with DS before switching to the SNS (enabling Mr Dacic to grab the premiership). In the Balkans political patronage means power, money and votes. So Mr Dacic is against an early election that would almost certainly see him replaced by Mr Vucic. The DS, which holds its own party meeting on January 18th, is also keen to avoid an election, after being humiliated in three local polls in December.
Dragan Djilas, leader of the DS, is fighting attempts by a former president, Boris Tadic, and by an ex-defence minister to take over his party. All this is ill-timed, says an official who is resigned to many years of opposition. Now he says, fighting to lead the party “is like fighting for a cabin on the Titanic.” Since the DS lost power in 2012, some 57 senior party members have been arrested for corruption during their time in office.
